Trump’s position has been steadily on the rise. A recent survey by Yahoo News/YouGov of 1,482 U.S. adults, conducted after Haley exited the race, highlights both strengths and weaknesses for Trump. On the positive side, Trump (46%) is narrowly ahead of Biden (44%) in a general-election matchup among registered voters. Biden had been leading for most of 2022 and 2023. Additionally, more Americans view Trump favorably (45%) compared to Biden (39%), and more now approve (49%) than disapprove (46%) of Trump’s performance as president. In contrast, Biden’s job-approval rating remains below water (39% approve to 55% disapprove). As the 2024 election season begins, memories of Trump’s time in office appear to be shifting in his favor. In the five Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted right after he left office, from January to June 2021, Trump’s average job-approval rating was 44%, with a job-disapproval rating of 52%. Currently, 45% of Americans believe that “things in this country” were “better back when Donald Trump was president,” while only 33% say they are “better today with Joe Biden as president.” When asked about each president’s accomplishments, 71% (up from 65% last November) believe Trump achieved either a lot (39%) or a little (31%), while only 61% say the same of Biden (27% a lot, 33% a little). The significant gap in accomplishments can be attributed to the perception that Biden has been “mostly passive” as president (53%), with only 30% saying he has been “mostly in charge.” In contrast, 65% believe Trump was mostly in charge during his time in office (up from 58% in November), with only 14% saying he was mostly passive (down from 19% in November).
Trump may be entering this year’s general-election battle in a stronger position than Biden, despite the latter’s recent State of the Union speech. However, there are still significant risks for the Republican nominee. Trump has never won the popular vote and has struggled to secure the support of a majority of voters. The fact that his ceiling in recent surveys is only 46% indicates that he has work to do before November. One key group that Trump may need to focus on is Haley voters, who make up 11% of registered Republican voters. Many of them are undecided or unwilling to support Trump at this time. Additionally, Trump’s legal troubles, including an upcoming criminal trial and a Supreme Court case, could pose further challenges. The majority of Americans believe it is important for Trump’s trials to be resolved before the 2024 election, rather than being delayed.
Do not underestimate the legal jeopardy that exists. Only a quarter of Americans believe that a president has absolute immunity from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office, while a majority of 53% disagree. Although there has been a slight increase in agreement among Republicans, from 40% to 47%, it is not enough to close the gap. If the Supreme Court were to rule differently, it could spark controversy. Less than half of Americans, 47%, express some or a lot of confidence in the court, a significant decrease from the 70% before the conservative majority was solidified in late 2020. Additionally, a majority of 62% believe that the court has become too politicized. Furthermore, 33% of Americans perceive the court as biased in favor of Trump, which is more than double the percentage who believe it is biased against him (15%). Assuming that Trump’s federal trials are allowed to proceed, a conviction could pose trouble for him in November. Only 31% of Americans now believe that Trump should be allowed to serve if convicted of a serious crime in the coming months, a decrease from 33% in January. On the other hand, 55% believe that he should not be allowed to serve, an increase from 53%. While the numbers may seem small, it is noteworthy that a portion of current Trump supporters would become unsure (9%), choose not to vote (5%), or support Biden (1%) if the former president is convicted of a serious crime. In a closely contested election where Trump cannot afford to lose support, every percentage point matters. When asked how they would vote if Trump is convicted of a serious crime, only 40% of Americans say they would still support him, a decrease from the current head-to-head matchup where he had 46% support. In contrast, Biden gains a single point (45%) in that scenario, giving him a 5-point lea
The survey conducted by YouGov for Yahoo News included 1,482 U.S. adults who were interviewed online from March 8 to 11, 2024. The sample was adjusted based on gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. The demographic targets were derived from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification reflects the respondent’s most recent answer before Nov. 1, 2022, and is weighted to match the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were chosen from YouGov’s opt-in panel to ensure representation of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is around 2.8%
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